Chip Supply Chain

Chapter 11 · Stage 11 of 15

Advanced Packaging

Lithography no longer sets the limit on the size of an AI accelerator. The limit now is how large an interposer, the wiring layer that joins the chips, TSMC can build, and how many it can build a month.

1,890 words / 8 min

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In plain terms

Packaging joins finished chips into one component and mounts them on a base, called a substrate, wired almost as finely as the chips themselves. A lithography machine, which prints a chip's circuits, can cover only a rectangle about the size of a postage stamp in one shot. Many leading accelerators, Nvidia's Blackwell among them, need more logic than fits in one, so they are made as several dies, set side by side on a shared interposer and wired together through it, with the stacked memory a few millimeters away. The interposer is one piece of silicon, or layers of fine copper wiring that often carry small silicon bridges where the links are densest. Interposer, chips and base all expand at different rates when heated, so the package can warp and its joints crack. Getting that right in large numbers is hard enough that nearly every AI accelerator is packaged by TSMC, in Taiwan.

In short

TSMC's chief executive said in July 2024 that demand for its CoWoS advanced packaging was so high that he could not yet balance supply and demand[10]. Epoch AI found that CoWoS, which joins an AI chip's logic dies to its memory, and the memory itself were the main limits on AI chip production in 2025[4]. In March 2026, the analyst firm SemiAnalysis judged that CoWoS supply was easing and that the factories that print the chips had become the main bottleneck[7]. TSMC's chief executive gave a different account on the July 2026 earnings call, saying that its packaging capacity was so tight that it limited customers' growth and that back-end capacity was still in shortage[12]. He welcomed Intel's EMIB-T and said he hoped it would take some of that load off TSMC[12].

Chokepoint cardExtreme concentrationModerately hard to substitute
ConcentrationExtreme
SubstitutabilityModerateIntel's EMIB can do the same job as TSMC's CoWoS, and the real shortage is in making enough working packages at the volume Nvidia orders.
Price or market sizeAbout 65,000 to 75,000CoWoS wafers a month at the end of 2025, in industry estimates from SemiWiki and TrendForce compiled by Epoch AI, up from 35,000 to 40,000 a year earlier. TSMC does not publish its CoWoS capacity, and at its 2024 symposium it projected 60 percent annual growth for the next few years. Epoch AI estimates Nvidia alone used 60.3 percent of the world's CoWoS capacity in 2025
Who leads
  • TWTSMC Almost all CoWoS for leading AI accelerators
  • USIntel Foveros 3D packaging in volume at Rio Rancho, New Mexico; EMIB 2.5D bridges
  • TWASE Technology NT$389.2B assembly, test and materials revenue, 2025; the leading provider of outsourced assembly and test
  • USAmkor $6.71B net sales, 2025; the largest American assembly and test firm
  • CNJCET RMB 38.87B revenue, 2025; a leading Chinese assembly and test firm
  • SGASMPT $532.1M advanced packaging revenue, 2025; thermocompression bonders
Where it is made
  • TWTaiwan TSMC AP fabs and the OSAT cluster; almost all 2.5D capacity for AI accelerators
  • USUnited States Intel Foveros packaging in volume at Rio Rancho, New Mexico; Amkor Peoria, Arizona from 2028; two TSMC advanced packaging plants planned in Arizona
  • CNChina JCET, Tongfu and HT-Tech; four of the top ten outsourced assembly and test firms by 2024 revenue are Chinese
  • NLNetherlands Besi hybrid and die bonders
  • JPJapan Disco grinders and dicers; TEL and Shibaura bonding tools
Why substitution is possible
None of the packaging steps is unusual, and Intel's EMIB is another 2.5D option, which Trainium and TPU were adopting to different degrees as of March 2026. The hard part is volume. A newcomer has to buy enough bonding machines and run enough practice lots to make the interposer at 5.5 times the area a scanner prints in one shot. It then has to attach the memory stacks, have them work, and do all of that at the volume Nvidia alone orders. Amkor's plant in Peoria, Arizona shows the timing. Its production is expected to start in early 2028, so the wait is two to five years.
Where China stands

Four of the top ten outsourced assembly and test firms by 2024 revenue are headquartered in China, and JCET alone had revenue of RMB 38.87 billion in 2025. Between 2019 and 2024, Chinese firms gained 5 percentage points of share in test tools and 4 points in fabrication tools built for advanced packaging, particularly etch and clean tools, but lost share in bonding and other conventional assembly and packaging tools, the category where CSET counts hybrid and thermocompression bonders. In 2024 China held 7 percent of advanced packaging fabrication tools, against 65 percent for the United States and 15 percent for Japan.

Where the US stands

Intel opened Fab 9 in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, in January 2024 to make its Foveros 3D packages in volume, and called it the only US factory producing the most advanced packaging at scale. Intel offers its EMIB 2.5D packaging to outside customers, and SemiAnalysis reported in March 2026 that Trainium and TPU were adopting it to different degrees. No US site yet packages Nvidia-class accelerators with HBM on CoWoS. Amkor is building a $7B packaging and test plant in Peoria, Arizona, with up to $407M of CHIPS Act money, and expects production to start in early 2028.

A lithography scanner prints a rectangle 26 mm by 33 mm, or 858 mm2, in one exposure[1]. Every AI accelerator worth buying is bigger than that. Packaging is the stage that lets an accelerator be larger than that rectangle, and it decides how much larger.

How it works

High bandwidth memory gives a second reason for the interposer. An HBM4 stack connects through 2,048 data signals, packed too tightly for a standard resin base board, so the memory sits beside the logic on that shared carrier, the interposer[2]. Even Nvidia's H100, whose single logic die is 814 mm2 and fits inside one exposure, carries five HBM stacks[3]. Epoch AI counts CoWoS packaging among the three inputs the H100 needs, along with its logic die and its HBM[4].

The parts of an AI accelerator

  1. Package base. An AI chip is built from several parts. First comes the package base, a layered board that connects everything to the circuit board below.
  2. Silicon base. On it sits a thin slab of silicon, called an interposer. Its fine wiring joins everything placed on top.
  3. Logic chips. Two logic chips go in the middle. They do the calculating, and each is as large as a chipmaking machine can print.
  4. Memory. Eight stacks of memory go beside them, a few millimeters away. They hold the AI model’s weights and the record of each conversation so far.
  5. One package. Together they make one AI accelerator. Nearly every one is put together by TSMC, in Taiwan.

Simplified view of a two-die, eight-stack accelerator. Footprints follow the sizes in this chapter and chapter 10; heights are exaggerated so each layer shows.

The name CoWoS says the order: chip onto wafer, then wafer onto substrate. For CoWoS-S, TSMC makes a thin silicon wafer carrying wiring and vertical copper vias, metal-filled holes that join one layer of wiring to the next, but no transistors. It bonds the logic dies and memory stacks face down onto that wafer with microbumps, dots of solder 30 to 40 microns apart, about a third of a hair's width, each dot one electrical joint. Then it cuts the interposer out of the wafer, attaches it to the resin substrate, and the substrate goes onto its board.

Each of those packaging steps is ordinary on its own. But one cracked joint scraps a package holding eight qualified HBM stacks and two large, expensive logic dies.

Variants and trade-offs

FamilyCarrierSize limitUsed for
CoWoS-SFull silicon interposer3.3x reticle, about 2,700 mm2H100-class parts
CoWoS-RResin interposer with fine redistribution wiringAbove 3.3x reticleCost-sensitive, fewer HBM stacks
CoWoS-LRedistribution wiring with local silicon bridges5.5x reticle in production, 9.5x in developmentBlackwell, Rubin

2.5D: silicon, RDL and bridges

TSMC has run CoWoS in volume since 2012[5]. CoWoS-S wires most finely, but its interposer is one unbroken piece of silicon whose yield falls as the area grows. CoWoS-L replaces that slab with an interposer of redistribution wiring and small embedded silicon bridges where the wiring is densest[6]. Intel's EMIB buries the same bridge idea in the resin substrate, and SemiAnalysis reported in March 2026 that Trainium and TPU were adopting it to different degrees[7].

Blackwell was the first high-volume design on CoWoS-L, and packaging issues at TSMC and in Nvidia's design limited its supply[8]. The bridges carrying the 10 TB/s link between the two compute dies need very high placement accuracy, and the different expansion rates of the dies, bridges, interposer and substrate caused warpage[8].

3D: SoIC and Foveros

TSMC's SoIC and Intel's Foveros bond dies face to face, copper pad to copper pad with no solder, packing the connections far closer than microbumps allow. TSMC put 3 nm SoIC into volume production in 2025[6]. An A14-on-A14 version due in 2029 will carry 1.8 times the die-to-die connection density of the 2 nm version[9]. Heat decides the layout: the bottom die overheats and the top is hard to power, so 3D designs often put cache underneath and compute on top.

The same bonding brings optics into the package. TSMC's COUPE uses SoIC to join a silicon photonics chip, which sends data as light, to its electrical control chip[6]. TSMC said in April 2026 that COUPE on substrate would begin production in 2026, and that placing this optical engine inside the package gives twice the power efficiency of a pluggable version on the circuit board[9].

Two ways off the silicon interposer

Panel-level packaging swaps the round wafer for a rectangular panel and wastes far less area; see Test and assembly. JEDEC published SPHBM4 on 13 July 2026. It puts HBM4 memory on a base chip carrying 512 data signals instead of 2,048, which spaces the connections widely enough to mount the stack on a standard resin substrate, off the silicon interposer altogether[2].

Capacity

TSMC does not publicly disclose its CoWoS capacity[4]. Industry estimates from SemiWiki and TrendForce, compiled by Epoch AI, put it at about 65,000 to 75,000 wafers a month at the end of 2025, up from 35,000 to 40,000 a year earlier[4]. At its 2024 symposium TSMC said capacity would grow at a 60 percent compound annual rate over the next few years, but when asked about that rate on the July 2024 earnings call, C.C. Wei said only that he would keep adding capacity wherever he could and could not yet balance supply and demand[10].

In October 2025 Wei would still say only that TSMC was working to increase capacity in 2026 and would probably give the real number in 2026, and that front-end and back-end capacity were both, in his words, very tight[11].

Epoch AI weighs each designer's component use against world supply and puts Nvidia at 60.3 percent of all CoWoS in 2025, with a 90 percent confidence interval of 56.5 to 64.3; Google took 13.5, AMD 8.4 and Amazon 7.4[4]. Those four consumed around 90 percent of global CoWoS capacity and HBM supply, with HBM measured by value, while consuming only 12 percent of advanced logic die production[4].

Estimated share of CoWoS capacity used, 2025%

Nvidia60.3%Google13.5%AMD8.4%Amazon7.4%Everyone else10.4%

Source: Epoch AI, advanced packaging and HBM were the bottlenecks on AI chip production in 2025

In March 2026, one analyst firm, SemiAnalysis, judged that front-end capacity had become the dominant bottleneck and CoWoS constraints were easing, and that TSMC was planning CoWoS capacity around its N3 limits because added packaging capacity is of no use without front-end wafers to fill it[7].

TSMC gave a different account four months later. On the July 2026 earnings call, Wei said its packaging capacity was so tight that it limited customers' growth, and that back-end capacity was still in shortage[12]. Asked about Intel's EMIB-T, he said he welcomed the extra flexibility and hoped it would take some of the load off TSMC[12].

Who makes it

CoWoS interposer size on TSMC's roadmapreticles

2024, CoWoS-L3.52026, in production5.5In development9.5202814
CoWoS interposer size on TSMC's roadmap
2024, CoWoS-L3.5 reticles
2026, in production5.5 reticles
In development9.5 reticles
202814 reticles

Source: TSMC 2025 annual report and 2026 technology symposium

The word packaging covers three kinds of firm. TSMC, which makes chips for others, and Intel, which makes its own, package chips in their own back-end fabs, and outsourced assembly and test firms do the rest. Intel opened Fab 9 in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, in January 2024 to make its Foveros 3D packages in volume, and called it the only US factory producing the most advanced packaging at scale[13]. ASE Technology Holding, the leading provider of assembly and test services, billed NT$645.4 billion in 2025, about 40 percent of it from electronics manufacturing services[14]. Its assembly, test and materials business brought in NT$389.2 billion, up from NT$325.9 billion in 2024[14]. Amkor, the world's largest US-headquartered one, billed $6.71 billion[15].

The tools are a narrower chokepoint than the assembly houses.

  • Thermocompression bonding. Pressing dies together under heat and force. ASMPT's advanced packaging revenue reached $532.1 million in 2025, with thermocompression bonder revenue up about 146 percent; it targets 35 to 40 percent of a market it puts at $1.6 billion in 2028[16].
  • Hybrid bonding. Solder disappears and copper pads meet directly. Applied Materials co-developed its Kinex hybrid bonding system with Besi, which Applied calls the industry leader in hybrid bonding[17].
  • Grinding and dicing. Disco held 87 percent of the $1.9 billion world market for dicing tools in 2025, a category that covers the grinders that thin wafers and the saws that cut them into chips, by CSET's count from TechInsights data; see Test and assembly[18].

TSMC's Arizona commitment reached $265 billion in July 2026 and covers two advanced packaging plants alongside 10 fabs[19]. Amkor started building a $7 billion campus in Peoria in October 2025 and expects production from early 2028[20]. The Commerce Department awarded Amkor up to $407 million in CHIPS Act funding for the site in December 2024[21]. In October 2025 Wei said a large outsourced packaging partner already breaking ground in Arizona was on an earlier schedule than TSMC's own two packaging fabs there[11].

The chokepoint

China-based suppliers' share of selected tool segments, 2024%

Test, linear and discrete69%Burn-in test9%Advanced packaging fabrica7%SoC test5%
China-based suppliers' share of selected tool segments, 2024
Test, linear and discrete69 %
Burn-in test9 %
Advanced packaging fabrication tools7 %
SoC test5 %

Source: CSET, Inside Beijing’s Chipmaking Offensive

JCET, a leading Chinese assembler, billed a record RMB 38.87 billion in 2025, up 8.1 percent[23]. Between 2019 and 2024, Chinese firms gained 5 percentage points of share in test tools and 4 points in fabrication tools built for advanced packaging, but lost share in bonding and other conventional assembly and packaging tools, the category where CSET counts hybrid and thermocompression bonders[22]. Within those advanced packaging fabrication tools, China gained 10 points in etch and clean tools and 3 points in deposition tools, and lost 2 points each in lithography and CMP tools[22]. In 2024 China held 7 percent of advanced packaging fabrication tools, against 65 percent for the United States and 15 percent for Japan[22]. Four of the top ten outsourced assembly and test firms by 2024 revenue are headquartered in China[22]. JCET says its XDFOI platform has entered high-volume manufacturing with redistribution-layer interposer, silicon interposer and silicon bridge options[24].

Each generation on TSMC's roadmap needs a larger interposer.

  • 2028. A 14-reticle interposer carrying about ten large compute dies and 20 HBM stacks, roughly 12,000 mm2 of interposer, about the area of a compact disc[9].
  • 2029. More than 14 reticles, and a 40-reticle System-on-Wafer beside it[9].

Key evaluation criteria

  • Interposer area is the limit on how much logic and memory fit, now 5.5x reticle on CoWoS-L[9].
  • Package yield decides whether a generation ships on time, and nobody publishes it.
  • Warpage control covers the expansion mismatch between die, bridge, interposer and substrate that caused warpage in Blackwell, the first high-volume CoWoS-L design[8].
  • HBM stacks supported is about 20 on the 14-reticle package due in 2028[9].
  • Bonder throughput depends on the toolmakers, and ASMPT alone targets 35 to 40 percent of the thermocompression bonding market[16].
  • Substrate size limits everything above it. A 14-reticle interposer needs a resin substrate that will not warp under it, which pushes ABF build-up film to its limits; see Substrates and PCBs.

Review questions

Open a question to see its answer.

Why is an AI accelerator built from several chips in one package?

Many leading accelerators, Blackwell among them, need more logic than a lithography machine can print in one shot.

Packaging sets the pieces and their memory side by side on a shared interposer and wires them together. Even the single-die H100 uses one to connect its memory. Reread: How it works

Who packages nearly every AI accelerator?

TSMC, in Taiwan.

Its process is called CoWoS. Nvidia alone took an estimated 60.3 percent of it in 2025. Reread: Who makes it

Why did packaging limit AI chip output in 2025?

Too few packaging lines had been built.

The methods already worked. In March 2026 SemiAnalysis judged that making wafers had become the main limit, but in July 2026 TSMC said its packaging capacity was still so tight that it limited customers' growth. Reread: The chokepoint

Can the United States package AI accelerators in volume?

Not yet for Nvidia-class accelerators.

Intel makes its Foveros 3D packages in volume in New Mexico, but no US site yet packages Nvidia-class accelerators with HBM on CoWoS. Amkor's plant in Peoria, Arizona is expected to start production in early 2028. Reread: The chokepoint

Sources (24)

  1. ATWINSCAN NXE:3400CASML
  2. ANew JEDEC® SPHBM4 Standard Enables HBM4-Class Bandwidth on Organic SubstratesJEDEC Solid State Technology Association · 13 July 2026
  3. ANVIDIA Hopper Architecture In-DepthNvidia · 22 March 2022
  4. AAdvanced packaging and HBM, not logic dies, were the bottlenecks on AI chip production in 2025Epoch AI · 12 March 2026
  5. ATSMC, CoWoS technology pageTSMC
  6. ATSMC 2025 Annual Report, chapter 5TSMC
  7. BThe Great AI Silicon ShortageSemiAnalysis · 12 March 2026
  8. BNvidia's Blackwell Reworked - Shipment Delays & GB200A Reworked PlatformsSemiAnalysis · 4 August 2024
  9. ATSMC Debuts A13 Technology at 2026 North America Technology SymposiumTSMC · 23 April 2026
  10. AQ2 2024 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call (Chinese, English) — edited transcriptRefinitiv StreetEvents (transcript of a TSMC earnings call), via TSMC · 18 July 2024
  11. AQ3 2025 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call (Chinese, English) — edited transcriptRefinitiv StreetEvents (transcript of a TSMC earnings call), via TSMC · 16 October 2025
  12. AQ2 2026 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call (Chinese, English) — edited transcriptLSEG StreetEvents (transcript of a TSMC earnings call), via TSMC · 16 July 2026
  13. AIntel Opens Fab 9 in New MexicoIntel
  14. AASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. Reports Its Unaudited Consolidated Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter and the Full Year of 2025PR Newswire · 5 February 2026
  15. AAMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC., Form 8-K current report for the period ended 2026-02-09 (8-K)U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filing by AMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC.) · 9 February 2026
  16. AASMPT Announces 2025 Annual Results AI-Driven Structural Growth Underpins Group PerformanceASMPT · 4 March 2026
  17. AApplied Materials, Kinex integrated die-to-wafer hybrid bonding system product pageApplied Materials
  18. ASupply Chain Explorer: Advanced ChipsEmerging Technology Observatory (ETO)
  19. ATSMC Announces Additional $100 Billion Investment in ArizonaArizona Commerce Authority · 16 July 2026
  20. AAmkor Technology Breaks Ground on New Semiconductor Advanced Packaging and Test Campus in Arizona; Expands Investment to $7 BillionAmkor Technology
  21. AAMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC., Form 10-K annual report for the period ended 2025-12-31 (10-K)U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filing by AMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC.) · 20 February 2026
  22. AInside Beijing’s Chipmaking OffensiveCenter for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) · 14 July 2025
  23. AJCET Releases 2025 Annual Report, Posts Record-High Full-Year Revenue and Higher Profit Before TaxJCET Group · 9 April 2026
  24. AJCET Accelerates Strategic Shift Toward High-End Advanced Packaging, 2025 Advanced Packaging Revenue Hits Record HighJCET Group · 21 April 2026